ISIS Impact on Syrian Agriculture and Nightlights

Syria has experienced sustained unrest since the 2011 Arab Spring protests. Today, the country is divided between Bashar al-Assad's Ba'ath Party government, the Kurds, the Syrian Opposition, the al-Nusra Front, and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS, or alternatively ISIL, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant). ISIS was formed in the spring of 2013 out of Al-Qaeda in Iraq. ISIS has had a presence in Syria since 2013 but was not targetted by the Syrian government until mid-2014. The group is known for enacting Sharia law over its territories and committing heinous human rights violations. Territorial advances since the formation of ISIS have further destabilized the Middle East through increased interstate war and inter-rebel tension.  The influence of ISIS on Syrian citizens can be assessed well using remote sensing techniques. The effect of ISIS control on agriculture is largely unknown. A Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) change detection study would allow for the analysis of how the environment and farming practices have been affected by war. Additionally, studying the change in urban nightlights would provide information on ISIS control of infrastructure and power grid damage, including the effects of the Syrian Civil War. A 2014 study found that nightlights are an effective variable for monitoring humanitarian crises, such as the ongoing one in Syria (Li & Li, 2014).

Problem
The study variables of nightlight change and NDVI change are important because they speak to the humanitarian impacts that ISIS is having on the residents of these urban and agricultural centers. Satellite data is effective in providing information about ongoing wars that cannot be easily assessed from the ground. Analysis done through this study can be expanded to more locations in Syria and Iraq and hopefully provide information to humanitarian missions about the status of major population centers under duress.

Hypothesis
It is expected that areas have experienced a decrease in urban nightlights since ISIS control. This may be due to fleeing refugees, as a linear correlation was found between internally displaced persons (IDPs) and loss of nightlights (Li & Li, 2014). A previous study found that Ar-Raqqa did not experience a loss of nightlights, while other ISIS-controlled cities did, possibly due to its status as headquarters (Li, et al. 2015). It is also expected that the study areas will have lower NDVI values since ISIS control due to a number of factors including increased war activity and migration of local farmers fleeing the war.